5/13/2003

STOCK MARKET I posted since March 1 HERE , then later on HERE and finally HERE about what to do. Everything has panned out as I said in all my posts. I have nothing more to add. Look for a Dow of around 9500. Invest, don't speculate. There are plenty of other indicators out there that are a positive for the economy as a whole. We won't be seeing any interest rate hikes any time soon, falling energy prices are like a huge tax cut HERE and especially HERE that will stimulate the economy as well as blanket any other inflation for a while; and BTW we need some inflation. The storms will be a big plus for the construction industry and look for Military Spending to remain above normal. I probably won't comment on the markets again for a long time. As I pointed out before, there isn't just that much to say at any given point in time other than buy, hold, sell, or stay out of the market which BTW is taking a position in the market. CURRENCIES Currencies tend to trend for years at a time. The "Clinton" dollar rally started in late 1995 and continued til April of 2001 when the first "inverted head and shoulders began to form. Since October of '01 when the right shoulder failed the dollar has been in straight decline. It is unusual for a currency trend to last only 1-1/2 years. The EU can't act as quickly as our central bank and they seem to be caught in a bind there. The cheaper dollar will rally our economy (it is doing so right now) and this trend could continue for years, not months. There is no record of trading the Euro so you have to take a look at the Swiss Frank (always a money spread with the old DM) with a glance at the pound. Right now the focus is on the yen but remember that the dollar is traded as an index with a "basket of currencies" and that trend is DOWN. BUT that "basket" has changed with the coming of the Euro so the past as a guide isn't necessarily meaningful because we just don't know about the Euro. One more point is that one country buying dollars or selling them does bubkis. When the G-7 moves they can stop a trend for a while, but usually trends last for years. Check the charts; EURO and Swiss Frank which duplicates the Euro right now. Long term dollar chart is HERE

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