STOCK MARKET
My post of 3/12 has disappeared from the archives along with the entire month of data, apparently a price of doing business with Blogger; as well as down time for the entire system when nobody can log on. What I said back then was that the market was in a trading range of roughly 7600 to 8500 and that the war would NOT help anybody out; that the market wants to see real profits with real companies now, and not to look for any more magic.

Nothing has changed. EXCEPT------falling oil prices are like a tax cut and the fall will be at least 25% from the high of $2.12 (in Los Angeles where we have $.46 cents in taxes added on). This means retail sales will look very good in a month. The big question is: will business start to see new opportunities? The Democratic Party will do everything it can to see that the economy is in bad shape by election time because they have no other issue. Don't look for a tax cut, a dividend tax cut, or anything that might help; anything that passes the Senate will be luck. The Democratic core constituency (the one that votes in the primaries) is the Welfare/Education/Entertainment Complex, one that includes all government workers, and they don't give a dam about tax cuts of any kind; lots of of them don't pay ANY federal taxes anyway and this bunch only wants to RECEIVE the tax money you and I pay in to the system. Most of the ones that do pay taxes are in the highest of the high brackets, they can afford to pay taxes, and think the rest of us are pigs because we want our taxes as low as possible..

I hope you have all learned to stay away from those touts on CNBC, the Wall Street Journal (show me one stock tip they have given you in the past 20 years), The New York Times (always wrong) and the like. If you use IBD you know that is where you actually get market information. I hope you have used the two years to learn an investment system. You should now use that knowledge to really watch the stocks you have selected for future investment. A very good base has been built, interest rate spreads are now attractive for stocks over bonds, and capital will become available for start ups and IPOs (much more if there is a tax cut).

I still want to see the averages rise on rising volume BUT so much money has left mutual funds I wouldn't look for big volume compared with "the old days". Mutuals still present a problem in that their trading habits skew the markets. Things look much better than they did back on 3/12 but don't look for the Dow to be at more than 9500 by year end, the S&P will still be below 1,000, and the NASDAQ, an index that is far too broad, won't do a hell of a lot; I suggest you chart the NASDAQ 100 for a better feel.

Have a system. Use it. I am a follower of Bill O'Niel at Investors Business Daily and that system has worked for twenty years; it is not easy to learn and you have to spend an hour a day watching the market. Don't ever use the "free" charting services available on the web and do your homework. If you have a broker, good luck. There is a fundamental conflict between being paid a commission on every trade and client well being.

Opportunity is not knocking yet, but its knuckles are poised to rap on the door. Be ready.