5/27/2003

IT'S GASOLINE PRICES, STUPID

The Economy

Unleaded gasoline prices are down forty five cents per gallon from six weeks ago, at least in SoCal where 40% of cross country trucking starts, where there are seven million registered cars. Just in SoCal if seven million people use just ten gallons of gas per week (low) that equals $4.50 x 7,000,000 gallons. That is Thirty One Million dollars per week going back into people's pockets for them to spend on something else. Almost a hundred million dollars per month just in The Greater Los Angeles area (Orange, San Bernardino, Los Angeles, Ventura counties). Projected across the nation using API data the money put back into every driver's pocket, is a staggering one hundred forty four million dollars per DAY. Multiply this by 30 days is $4.3 BILLION DOLLARS per month going back into our economy (and I am using 40 gallons per barrel of gasoline and not 45). Paired with the tax cut this has to be major league bullish for this economy. Again check the commodity charts (refer to my piece at HERE). Deflation is in the minds of Bush bashing liberals. We have all just received a double tax refund and you can bet a good deal of the Matrix Reloaded business is some of that extra money, to state one example. If you're not invested now you never will be. Even the Goldman Sachs Commodity Index which is weighted for energy is up from 140 in 1999 to 240 today. By any measure--no deflation.
And the tax cut? It will help capital formation and this capital is need to expand business. The combination with falling energy prices fueling a consumer spending increase in retail stores and other places is super bullish for the economy. Still wondering why the Dems didn't want to cut taxes? They need failure and bad times.

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