5/08/2003

SCARE STORIES ON DEFLATION After all the scare headlines and dire descriptions of what will happen when deflation hits come the real concerns of the FED. In response to the query "How likely is disinflation (deflation) now?" We get this:

"Not very, according to both Fed officials and private economists. Prices for services like medical care and college tuition appear immune to deflation, and housing prices historically. The declining dollar has been pushing up the prices of imports, which represent about 15 percent of consumer purchases. Apparel, electronics and computer equipment are among the categories that have shown steady price declines in recent years.
Still, as Bernanke points out, nobody predicted that Japan would be caught in its current deflationary spiral. “So, having said that deflation in the United States is highly unlikely, I would be imprudent to rule out the possibility altogether,” Bernanke said in the November speech."

What we have is a very slow news cycle where a trip to an aircraft carrier dominates cable news for a day, a slowdown in Laci Peterson mourning vigils creates a news hole, and a refusal to report on the French/EU oil scandals brings forth a story whose principal feature is a denial of their own scare headline. BTW last I heard wars are inflationary.

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