ANATOMY OF A STOCK TIP

Kudlow and Cramer are the best on TV with nobody in second place. Kudlow is an economist who knows his shit and Cramer is a stock hustler who can afford to make mistakes because his clients are all multi millionaires. But even the big hitters need to have some "safe" stuff, stuff that pays dividends, has no debt, is moving in a relatively hot group and won't collapse. And a big mouth egomaniac always needs to scream at the screen that he was "right".

Their latest tip du jour has been Pfizer. A pharmaceutical company of some note. They even had a guest tout, who you can bet is loaded up with big clients, who will say what is within the law to make the stock move. So what's the skinny on Pfizer for the SMALL investor?

The group they are in is ranked 24 (out of 197)----23 better groups but this is OK
Compared to ALL other companies this stock only ranks 76 out of a possible 99, meaning while it has outpaced 76% of the market there are a hell of a lot of other companies that look better in overall performance.

It is in a fundamentally good group, 24 out of 197, BUT Pfizer is not rated all that high within the group, #34 out of 70 stocks, meaning there may be thirty other companies in this group that are better (do research before buying anything). BUT if you look at this stock on a strictly cold fundamental basis; meaning annual and quarterly sales and earnings growth rates, sales and earnings acceleration, stability of earnings, and ROE which means profit margins and return on equity you will find this company in the upper 96%. Rock solid. The ideal safe TV stock tip.

DO YOU BUY AS A RESULT OF MONDAY'S TIP? NO NO NO

The stock GAVE a buy in signal last Friday Monday. These two guys absolutely knew that the stock was flying for two days an entire day before they "tipped". If you buy now you are "chasing" a stock and you have no reliable signal for getting out. This is still a "safe" TV stock. It will probably go up to $40 but who knows when. If you are a gambler do you risk $34 to get back $40? ("Hey baby, I picked up a fast six bucks let's go to Vegas") The bubble high was around $50. Now if this company has something NEW, acquires another company or looks aggressive then maybe this is a play for a small guy. But a $34 stock ain't cheap. 100 shares might be a bit much for many.

IN SHORT IT IS SAFE, AS THESE THINGS GO. BUT FOR A SMALL INVESTOR IS THIS REALLY A STOCK TO BUY? I SAY NO. WHILE A SMALL INVESTOR SHOULD WANT DIVIDENDS, BIG GROWTH IS MOST IMPORTANT.

Now who is better and what have they done for people lately. Just within this group.

#1 in this group is a company called Endo Pharmaceuticals. Stock is a hell of a lot cheaper at $14, which means you can buy 200 shares for $2800. The stock is ranked first out of the 70 in that group. Compared to ALL other companies this stock ranks 98 out of a possible 99 meaning it has outpaced almost 99% of the market.

While this may be best, the ride could be over. It has risen 145% this year and 23% in the past four weeks. And there is no buy in point left. You would want to watch this stock and wait for a buy in if all data was OK (HAVE A SYSTEM). Specs will bail on this stock and take some profits. This is a stock that ranks high in a high ranking group with a stock price you can afford.

You have to avoid the TV touts because they have to recommend stocks that won't make them look like morons by falling out of bed, while at the same time touting one that IS rising right now so they can say they were right and if you bailed before it went south you'd have made some bucks.

The small investor needs to do some serious looking before getting in. This takes TIME. You need to spend time, or speculate on cocaine futures. Blondes are even better. Add, Thursday June 19th---I correct the top part of this post. The buy signal, and it was a classic one, came on Monday. If this had been a stock you had been watching you'd have had a buy stop at around $33.90 and in a fast market you would have been filled at around $34.10. The market closed on Monday at $36.20, when you were told the stock was hot.. The next morning you could have "chased" the market and paid between $35.90 and $36.10. Had you done that you are already behind because the stock closed today at $35.60 and you have entered the market without a clue. Now what? You wait til somebody tells you that you have lost too much or made too much and get out. Only time will tell if a buy point of $36 for this stock was wise. What is undeniably true is that you bought too late by $2.