MARKETS

The REAL employment data
Takes a while for the numbers under the numbers but here they are.
1. The JOBLESS RATE is one separate figure. The JOBLESS RATE is calculated by interviewing households. People go around to households and actually talk to people.
2. The JOBS figures comes from business payrolls.

In other words we have two separate sets of numbers. Question is, what does each mean and do they diverge?

If we are in a recovery------IF---the JOBLESS rate, meaning household surveys, will show a dramatic improvement before the JOBS rate does. The JOBLESS rate shows a huge improvement; it shows employment has risen by 1.3 million, including 281,000 in June.

BUT the JOBS data, the figure derived from business payrolls, is in the toilet because (again IF we are in a recovery) the payroll data lags by as much as a month.

611,000 people entered the work force in June, four times the usual monthly increase and this means increasing confidence by workers.

So the big IF here is: IF we are in a recovery.

We still don't know. Sorry.