8/30/2003

Economy and Markets
DON'T THINK, DON'T LISTEN

For the small investor: 5K to 25K
Whatever you hear, just watch your numbers, your charts, or whatever it is you watch for MARKET INFORMATION. The only important news this week happens Friday at 8:30EDT; that is when the jobs number comes out (unemployment) and the number there is important. I am depressed as you are about Iraq (good stuff here); even more pissed off than you are about gasoline prices; enraged at local media where I live that covers up stories; BUT I know I must not allow my emotions to affect my trading. My natural gas/gasoline post below is depressing, I can't help it. You need to know what is out there. Reality is that the rise in gasoline prices completely wipes out the tax cut; heating oil prices for the winter are going to be at least 50% above normal and natural gas prices will be at least double what you've been paying. These will negate the tax cut; in fact these prices are the same as a new tax. Pay no attention. Only get out of your positions on NUMBERS. Chances are that all of that negative news is already IN the markets. Mutual Funds with their obscene amounts of money still make their quarterly moves in order to look good; hedge funds ditto. Stay focused and pay no attention to anything. The markets themselves still look strong. But if your sell signals say sell, sell. September and October are traditionally rough months (August too but it was stellar). You can always buy back in at a lower price.

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