Economy

Last week I noted the mysterious growth in the unemployment survey that found that the home survey showed a huge job increase. I said then that nobody could figure it out.

The household numbers show job growth of 193,000. What? This is because there are two surveys. The payroll (unemployment) is determined by phoning employers and asking the question. The household numbers are derived from calling households and asking. So which number is right? Are both right?

Larry Kudlow, who I respect enormously, has looked into the numbers and he reports that these are almost all new business start ups, and independent contractors. These are job creating forces. I haven't heard anybody with another explanation, other than that the survey is flat wrong (why this part of the survey is wrong and the other part right, they never say). I am still leery of the volume and Bush made the market feel better. Kudlow is bullish on the market, LONG TERM. He's very good but he called this bull at least six times before it started rolling. But he is much smarter than I am.