10/28/2003

Markets and Economy

How do you make money off the California fires? At first thought you dump your insurance stocks. If you have a good one, hold it. This is because they have more than adequate reserves to cover the fire, no single company handles 100% of any risk, and in the scheme of things a few thousand homes burning up is no big deal insurance wise.

Building related companies; same thing. Building a few thousand extra homes is not going to fuel a big construction boom, a boom that is taking place anyway. This is a spectacular disaster, "groovy visuals" as they say in the business, slow moving unlike a hurricane, and long on human misery, but in terms of total damage it is minor compared to hurricanes, floods, and earthquakes. Big News today business spending is up. This is a major move.

I'd say there is no way to make money on the fires at all because in the grand scheme of things the damage being reported is to habitat (woods and endangered species) with actual home damage in the $50 million class. In fact it is safe to say that reported damage is completely bogus.

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