3/20/2004

Markets and Economy
BUILDING A BASE

Til we have good JOBS numbers we won't have much movement on the indexes. Keep in mind that this market is now expensive. The big guys are selling at thirty times earnings (you just don't understand, they will go higher) so you have to shop in the low cap markets. Checking the charts on the S&P 600, the IBD Small Caps, and so on we are having a huge run there. The thing we all want most is NEW. New products and new ideas. Right now if you can find a fuel cell company that's right you buy it. Same for any hybrid energy source. Oil prices are going to make these things come to market very fast. Rumors that a drug company has a pill that will give you a hard-on that will last for three weeks are premature.

Weekly employment figures can be misleading. On the next JOBS report all the retail clerks (40,000+) who were on strike will show up as will the construction trades who have been quiet during the bad weather. Any number above 70,000 will be real new jobs.

Remember: the 90s are over. The Democrats are a threat to the market but let the MARKET tell you that they are concerned, don't sell on your opinion. Some economists are calling for 6% growth during the 1st quarter. A few call for seven. Profits are really good. The stocks that pay dividends were not affected by the recent sell off. I told you about dividends months ago. I was stopped out of two stocks I'd bought when the Dow was around 8,000 and they'd had their run. I'm still in a stock that looks as good as when I bought it.
Not a solicitation to buy or sell stocks. All stock investment involves risk of loss of all your money. Do not invest more than you can afford to lose. Stop loss orders may not be filled at your price. Buy stop orders may not be filled at your price. Spreads can be more risky than outright long or short positions. Buying on margin or trading the futures market can result in losing more money than you have put up and shouldf never be undertaken by people without the capital to sustain huge losses.

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