4/04/2004

Markets and Economy
WHAT NEWS?

Nothing much to be said other than "whew, that was close." If you will check the markets you will find we are still in a trading range. Back to the fundamentals of dividends, profits, and buying or selling stocks based on whatever system you use. Employment is political in its effect and the election will be the only thing affected. We need numbers in the 200,000 (the actual employment growth) for six to eight months in order to really kick the economy into gear. As a political aside, let me point out that "outsourcing" is most always building a plant near their customers; wherever they sell the build. But the profits come back here and are plowed into this economy.

I am always most wary when things look most rosy, and things sure do look rosy. You will note that as the dollar gets a little stronger oil prices will fall slightly as I have pointed out before. The one change to watch is the selling of bonds to buy stocks. The inevitable result will be higher rates, not set by the Fed but set by (horror) the markets.

Then there is CHINA Every rosy forecast is based on continuing huge demand from China. Watch out. This could change in a commissar's whim. Nobody knows if they are cooking the books. Right now they are funding their growth with trade, the same formula that built the U.S.A. Just be careful, this demand could dry up overnight.

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