4/20/2004

Markets
I WAS WRONG

I said we'd not see rates go up before election. WRONG. Greenspan's commentary today indicates that he sees a monster employment number coming up and the Fed will raise rates 1/4 point as early as May but look for June. And there might be one more 1/4 in July or August.

Greenspan sees data long before it becomes available to anyone. All I can say is that the mid-week LA Times help wanted is huge for all labor categories. Mid week has been very thin for years. Stock profits will remain very good because there is just a tinge of inflation out there which means they can raise prices. And look at the dollar. I've been saying for months it would go to 118 ECU; as I write this it is at .11850. It could get even stronger as the EU goes Japan, a ten year recession. And gold falling $20 in a week is telling you that we are booming. Next JOBS report is May 7th.

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