4/18/2004

Markets
WHAT THE HELL?

It's simple: To the bond traders (as opposed to investors) good news is bad news and bad news is good news. Get it?

These assholes are just traders trying to "scalp" some points and when the economy looks super strong they assume the Fed will kill the economy by raising rates, ergo (whatever that means) they want to be ahead of the Fed. And the much vaunted "Pros" in the stock market are not about to out brained by a bunch of fucking morons in the bond market so they do the same thing. You can't expect a bunch of 1590 SATs to just sit around and collect dividends, can you? You can't make money off the public unless you TRADE. Stay away from them. (Side Bet: Bond prices will be back to where they were within two weeks)

Booming retail sales are bad, booming housing starts are bad, recovering employment is bad. Do you need any more information to make the judgement on Wall Street Experts? Those of us in the 950 SAT class (who think the day will never dawn that rate hikes take place before an election) will make the money, don't worry. We are far too stupid to read the slow and fast stochastics, Bollinger bands adjusted for phases of the moon, or the interest rate-gold price-freight rate ratio compared to the DAX. That's why we can make money.

Don't read the news. We are in what is known as a trading range in the major indexes. What is that? Draw a parallel lines across highs and lows and you will see we are bound by the lines. Is this bad? Hell no. If you look at other index charts like the Russell you will see a market still trending up. This is where the action is when an economy is growing because the smaller companies that have room to grow just take off. I have been saying for almost a year to invest in stocks that pay dividends.

Most people who look at fair value think the major index stocks are at fair value right now. Iraq could develop into a real problem, but so could the coming ice age. Stay the course, don't listen to anybody but the markets. Thank God I don't have to write a daily column on the markets, if I did I'd have to write about all the bullshit to keep my job.

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