5/05/2004

GASOLINE PRICES VS INFLATION

Total crap link from Reynolds regarding gasoline prices adjusted for inflation showing no change, or paying less. Complete and total bullshit as anyone with a dime in the bank knows. For California (where I live) the price as gone from thirty four cents per gallon in 1970 to a dollar eighty nine one month ago based on a three month average through March. Using CPI adjusted for inflation prices you have to begin with the deflator, that is pricing 1970 gasoline with the deflator as well as pricing today's price. Meaning priced per CPI dollar in your pocket at the time; 1975, 1981 etc. Pricing it that way gasoline cost $132.10 in 1970 and costs $2.143 right now (actually higher because gasoline has gone up around four cents in the past week) an increase in adjusted dollars of 61%. If you want to see nationwide data go HERE to the department of energy website which will give you data from 1919 on a national basis. Probably more accurate because they show with and without local taxes. Dopes who keep twenty years of data on their computers are zany to begin with and calculating inflation in nearly impossible. Gasoline is up 61% in California from 1970; calculating from 1980 the price is DOWN 21%; calculating from 1990 the price is up 58%. BUT to calculate FROM 1980 you would have to use a 1980 price deflator and this study is using a 1970 deflator. This only means that any study has to be done from a certain point in time. Gasoline prices are up from every period but the 1980. CA study is HERE I've traded energy for years and I know my shit. I always check emails for actual data and find most the emails total crap. I got roped in to the whining USMC mom without checking; my fault all the way. Think Reynolds will explain? Fat chance. Later add due to a couple of emails Another thing to consider is the improved gas mileage per vehicle. What needs to be calculated is the cost per mile driven. Very tough. If you are driving a car right now that gets 23mpg and you drove one in 1980 that got 14mpg you might find gas cheper on a miles driven basis. Very tough to calculate. Very tough. Oh, then because of the high cost of housing you are living twice as far away from work than before......The Road Goes on Forever and the Party Never Ends...