WHY SADR LOST WHY WE BEAT SADR

First let's assume that we have very smart people. All the army/marine brass are highly educated and many are students of history. Powell has a terrific background and many in the State Department are well schooled in history of the Mid East.

I refer you first to my post on bakshish which is here. Consider the history of the region and particularly Iraq. Every new Iraq leader since WWI, after the first "king" who died a natural death, has taken over after either murder, intrigue, "mysterious" deaths, and a few forced exiles after a bloody takeover.

Every new leader paid off lots of people inside the prior government, but every single one of them had the Iraq army on his side in the rebellion or as part of the new government before seizing power. All wiped out the opposition, then solidified their power by surrounding themselves with family and their old tribe members, making sure they were well compensated, with women, money, nice homes and steady incomes from businesses. Every leader knew that there was many below him plotting to overthrow him in the same way he achieved power so "purges" (mass killings) were frequent. That's the way of the Middle East.

Enter Sadr. First, there was no army he could corrupt or control. Second, there were very few people he could pay off to side with him outside his immediate area. He started his "revolution" surrounded only by his closest associates. The army was the U.S. Armed Forces. The civil service was controlled by the U.S. Students of Middle East History knew that this was an attempted takeover that didn't fit the matrix. The local imams, who also knew history, or if they didn't you can bet U.S. authorities explained history to them, may have been paid off but they all knew that without an army to support him he couldn't win.

Our people decided to simply keep the pressure on and allow nature to take its course. By surrounding Sadr they prevented any "army" from joining him. Slowly the imams started to side with the winner as they had done all through history. The U.S. was going to be the winner and the Shias lined up against him. The Sunnis were bottled up in Fallujah so any that might have supported him couldn't get there.

History ruled. I think our people were simply educated enough to let him hang by picking off his "army" two by two and finally forcing all the imams to basically order him to quit. They read history too and their purpose is to gain power for themselves later.

So far this strategy hasn't worked in Fallujah because the Sunnis have limited goals. Taking over the Sunni Triangle is what they want to do and they have all the support they need, except for an army. The Fedayeen imports are their army. But now they are surrounded and cannot be re- enforced. Let's see how this one plays out. There is no way the Sunnis can expand beyond their border. There is nobody to corrupt, although Iran is capable of pumping billions into bakshish when the new Iraq government takes over.

So far so good, although not knocking them off when we could have may still be a monster mistake.