7/24/2004

Markets and Economy
TRADING RANGE OVER

Clear break to the down side and you should hold all investing til market shows it is headed up. All the technicals will have to be restructured. If your stocks are still OK don't panic, sell only on YOUR sell signals. Don't try to read a Kerry victory, a Bush implosion or anything else into this. Just look at your numbers. PERIOD. I am of the firm belief that nobody knows why markets go up or down on a daily basis, they just have to write an article or do some dumb TV show so they pretend knowledge nobody has.

I GOT WHACKED when oil broke to the upside but I'm still sticking with my call for $31 oil. May re-short it on Monday. Sunday add: I am soooo tempted to short oil tonight. Last week's rally was on very low volume, it LOOKS like it COULD BE an inverted head and shoulders in the making (on the weekly), and I could make a fortune IF I'm right. I'm gunna watch. I need more than suspicion and hope in order to play. But God Dam it a short looks good. I always keep in mind that (a) we could have an inverted blow off bottom, (b) if charts were actually worth a shit we wouldn't have any markets at all, (c) a "W" could be forming, (d) there is a conspiracy like they say in the Manchurian Candidate.

Some things to listen for from the Democrats this week: corporate profits are soaring and the workers are getting shit; wages have not gone up, employment in the factory sector is still down (and will stay down in my opinion), nothing on God's earth is going to put the Army of Morons to work in a hi-tech society, so look for the deliberately uneducated to raise hell there.

But aside from all this is a fact: the economy grows when wages to workers grows. Sixty million people with an extra fifty bucks per week in their pockets on a regular basis is far more important than rising stock prices and rising dividends. We not only have a low jobs recovery we have another huge gap between profits and wage hikes. This cannot continue. The Microsoft dividend payment hides some real problems within that company. I think we have systemic problems of far too many speculators in the market as opposed to long term investors, a ton of useless Wall Street analysts, commission driven brokerage houses, and the new scam of FOREX Trading that every brokerage firm now offers because of the huge profits involved, in spite of the fact that clients all lose their asses.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

Seeking counsel from elders seems to be a lost advantage. Experience usually translated into lessons learned that may contain pearls of wisdom that could have benefited the lost or struggling. Having survived my share of crises, I am using technology to share a thought or two. The main lesson is to never stop learning. Reading and seeking other points of view like visiting your blog is one way. Finding what is ultimately important leads one to appreciate actuality, efficiency and mindfulness. Helping others to see some of the forest through the trees is a benefit of age and maturity. happy thought