8/01/2004

Markets and Economy
CAREFUL STRANGER

The used car prices for SUVs have plummeted to serious levels. People who buy used cars cannot afford the fuel costs. This means the auto companies that have been making a killing on SUV sales are going to be hurt badly. New buyers are trading in and when they find out how little their current SUVs are worth many are unlikely to buy new ones. The rich can afford to put $100 per week into gasoline but most normal people cannot. Will this affect the markets? Yes. Hybrids are coming but slowly.

I did not short oil on Monday as I wanted to because I got no real signals. Took every bit of trading experience I have to lay off. As a side issue, Putin has almost killed all investment in Russia with his handling of the "oil criminals." There is no way to improve their delivery system without huge foreign investment, and this source of money has literally dried up. They may go back to the old days and seize weak countries with lots of oil.

The market in general? We are building a whole new set of techs, new trading range, a downside bias right now, and I THINK the market is wary of a Kerry win and investors are becoming defensive. NASDAQ still has too many spec longs and has to shake these people out.

Again, if your stocks look OK don't dump them but pay close attention to your stops and sell signals. I'm not a buyer in this climate.

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