RISK--REWARD--CONSEQUENCES IT'S NOT A GAME IN IRAQ

Compare walking a tightrope that is 100 feet above a cement floor with walking a tightrope that is three feet above a mattress. The risk of falling off the tightrope is the same in both cases. But there are two results to consider. First is the result of falling off the tightrope at the two heights. Certain death vs nothing. BUT---Consider the number of people who would pay big money to see you attempt the high wire act above the cement floor; there are the TV rights, the live audience paying several millions, and the endorsements for commercials which will come to the high wire daredevil. There are tens of millions to be had, for you, your agents, and your family should you croak.

The rewards for taking high risks are enormous and the penalty for failure is death or ruin. So it is with Iraq. We have taken the high wire risk and there are elements inside this country who would like us to fall off. Some would like to push us off. They don't want to participate in this effort because they are risk averse as individuals and as groups. These are people who won't take risks for any reward, no matter how large. As a group they are the entitlement class to whom every risk of government money is viewed as stealing from their "entitlement" to that money. The war in Iraq steals their government doles and they view the risk taking class as stealing the money. They won't drill for oil because of the "risk" to the caribou (really because they fear the cost will take from their dole); they won't build nuclear power plants because of the risk; they won't fight for freedom because of the risk, they won't fight for freedom here either. Remember the "Better Dead than Red" left of the 50s; "Hell no I won't Go" in the 60s and 70s.

Now let us examine risk from the POV of a high wire walker who has an iron clad 100 million dollar insurance policy. This guy sees a fabulous future for his family if he falls together with a sure place in Paradise. Now what is the risk the wire walker is taking? It is zero, and that is what we face with the terrorists. They see a better future in death than in life. They are taking no risk whatsoever no matter the outcome of their suicide attack.

It follows that we must put real risk into their game. The Israelis are going after the families of suicide bombers as well as their friends and the higher ups so as to put plenty of risk into the "game." How dirty do we want to get? It should be a no brainer if we felt that the Terrorists were actually a threat to us. Right now we don't. 9/11 is viewed as something that "cannot" happen again by the risk averse crowd.

Even worse, how serious do Bush and the Administration take it?