1/23/2005

CORRECTED POSTING: I had originally criticized the Bush Administration for what I felt was their negligence in allowing the EU to build a very large plane, the A380, and then through subsidization and blackmail blow Boeing away. This posting was incorrect as several emailers pointed out to me, and partcularly emailer Jay S. who directed me to the Boeing site. According to Boeing blogger and Chief of Marketing, Randy Baseler: Boeing is betting the huge EU plane is a bust and the future of airline travel lies in smaller planes. Entire Post HERE

The A380 does not mark the beginning of a new stage in commercial aviation; it is the crowning achievement of a bygone era (I love that one). An era when passengers had to deal with multiple connections and few flight choices. Industry data from the past 10 to 15 years is clear: demand for air travel is up, the number of flights and the number of cities with non-stop services is up, yet the average size of airplanes flying today is down.
Sure hope Boeing is right. Meanwhile, here is how the good old French lead the EU into "business." Airbus is not only subsidized, but the Europeans resort to blackmail...
"....tsunami-struck Thailand has been told by the European Commission that it must buy six A380 Airbus aircraft if it wants to escape the tariffs against its fishing industry….[T]rade authorities in Brussels are demanding that Thai Airlines, its national carrier, pay £1.3 billion to buy its double-decker aircraft." The A380, of course, is the pride of Old Europe: the new super jumbo jet just announced by Airbus. The EU always insists that its below-market rate loans and grants to Airbus aren't subsidies.
Blackmail is not a subsidy. Airbus executives once boasted of their readiness to 'give the planes away,' if necessary, to seize market share from American rivals. Now they are bankrupting helpless countries. Who says colonialism is dead? Randy closes with this one:
Consider that Airbus says London's Heathrow will use the most A380s during the next two decades. Yet, the 747's share of departures at Heathrow hasn't changed during the past twenty years. Airbus lists Tokyo's two airports and Hong Kong's as major A380 hubs. But at those three airports, the 747 as a percentage of departures is about half of what it was in the 1990s. If large airplanes solve congestion, the 747 departures would have been going up.

Either Airbus knows for certain that the trends of the past 10 to 15 years are about to do an immediate U-turn, or it has misread the state of aviation as it really is today and where it's going in the future.
Thai Airlines will be able to haul record shrimp tonnage.