2/23/2005

Chinese trouble is going mainstream. It's beginning to look like my piece on China a while back AND the Simmons piece of last week are very short of the mark. George Friedman, president of Stratfor and one of the leading economists in the world, is calling for a collapse of the Chinese economy. He thinks he also undershot the mark, in fact all his pieces low balling the Chinese bad debt have been removed from the web; it's not at JWR, not at Stratfor, it's not anywhere. He now thinks they have a trillion dollars in non-performing loans with reserves of less than 600 billion. He likens the current situation in China to that of Japan in the 80s and SE Asia in 1996. There have been a few warnings but none from such a near to main stream source. Your investments in China are at great risk. Keep in mind how the MSM just loved Japan before the crash and how in love with SE Asia til the crash there. Stratfor points out that emails touting Chinese investment "before it's too late" inundate all of our mail boxes. This will be big MSM news after the crash. Kudlow may have something on it as well, maybe tomorrow.
Add: 2/23: The Chinese are slowing their economy which means the high prices for commodities may be at an end. WaPo has best piece so far.