Notes on a Zig Zag paper: now that most of us have broken arms and dislocated shoulders from patting ourselves on the back for being "right" on Iraq, the Middle East, Lebanon, and Desperate Housewives, let's get serious. The five years of Big Media attacks on Bush set expectations so low for everyone that any success looks like a 100 yard Super Bowl kickoff return with ten seconds left in the game. Like it or not, the MSM with their massive assaults on Bush and his "freedom thing" had all of us on the ropes only hoping that we were right, not knowing we were right. So OK, we were mostly right. Now what?

Iraq is still a mess. Lebanon is still a part of Syria and it is not likely that Assad will let it go without destroying it. Again. Israel and Palestine conflict looks better, not solved. Saudi terrorists still roam the world and if you think that Saudi Arabia without the Saud family will be anything other than a Wahabbi state, you have a better drug connection than I do. Afghanistan is once again the opium/heroin capital of the known universe and those farmers cannot be allowed to get rich (for them) off of this trade forever. Pakistan is an atomic reactor with serious leaks, and then there is always Iran. Those of you who are ordering French wine again now that France is helping us in Lebanon should think again. France is helping because France has huge economic interests in Lebanon and the French are, well the French. The late great Hariri, the Lebanese billionaire killed in the bomb explosion, was the crony capitalist of all crony capitalists. Only his family benefitted from his works {they own most of the developed real estate, banks, and new hotels} and it is not likely that Assad and company will let all that slide. Hariri was the Arab businessman clone, a guy who kept all ownership within within family and tribe; he did well by doing good. Things look a lot better than they did six months ago, but we have a long long war ahead of us.

Markets: the massive speculation in oil futures is once again running the price up. It looks like world wide futures open interest is in excess of a billion and a half barrels. Way way too much, and I don't know how much spec there is in Hong Kong or Tokyo. BTW Larry Kudlow has a good piece today. Nobody can comment because Blogger comments are shut down, again. That is why I cut mine off. As a late add: his show on CNBC without Jim Cramer is just crap. He is impossible to listen to unless he sticks to markets and economics. A total and predictable cure for insomnia.

Dollar slide continues. The recent slide can only be explained if Greenspan is not telling the truth about Fed Policy. If the supply of dollars has shrunk the slide cannot continue. Again, trade the numbers. Do not trade opinions like mine. For a look at trading when the green line is crossed go HERE. Had you shorted on the crossing you'd be up around 3K per contract. Should you really want to see why people are really getting scared take a look at the 15 minute and 5 minute charts, which is what most floor traders trade. This is scary volitility with each tick representing $12.50 [each full point is $1,250]. Most traders trade size of thirty contracts or more. Many will trade 100. We are talking huge money here.