5/21/2005

Markets First, the way I work I never make a prediction, even one day out. I let the market tell me what to do, and then I execute. Even so, I'm wrong on entry 70% of the time. I've never talked to any really big shooter who won't tell you the same. The trick is to have strong sell signals, AND THEN PAY ATTENTION. The money is made when you make these huge runs on stocks you have chosen correctly.

Everybody, EVERYBODY, who does a financial show on TV by definition is going to be wrong most of the time. They hedge what they say with astrological writing...Flange is going to $30 unless the Fed tightens and money gets too expensive. Or they will tout a sector: "Boy do I like paper sector." never ever naming a stock and when to buy it and when to get out if you are wrong.

Give me a break. If you'd like to learn to trade---meaning buying or selling with the intention of closing the position out----the best of the best is Peter Steidlmayer at the CBOT. His Market Profile method of TRADING has no equal; problem is that most guys don't have the discipline to trade it, or trade it without really getting it. The best of the best when it comes to investing is Bill O'Niel at Investors Business Daily. By every measure, by every evaluator, he's number one over almost every period of time. The CANSLIM investing method has no equal and stands alone. WARNING there are a ton of hustlers out there who say they will do the work for you and give you tips. Wrong. You must learn the system and do it yourself because you are going to be investing in New America stocks that cannot handle a sudden buy of 200,000 shares. New America is a section of the paper that features types of stocks that fit a certain criteria. Late Add: I haven't visited the entire IBD site in a few months, but it has been expanded to an extraordinary degree. My God, this tool is astonishingly good.

Getting back to the topic of the heading regarding TV touts. They all run out of things to say. I commented on Kudlow's site today how really bad Elaine Garzarelli is. She made one call, the crash of'87, but she stayed bearish for the next four months and missed a huge rally, one of the biggest in history.. She was fired by Shearson because she lost so much client money; actually she had gains but they were pathetic when compared to almost anything else. I told Kudlow that he is aiding and abetting a fraud that will cost investors money. He was aggressive on the tube today building her up. BTW: He's right as the sun on a hot day when he cautions on Greenspan, the guy who has caused two recessions. The economy, the world economies, cannot take more than one more hike in rates. The "yield curve:---the difference between the short term rates and the long term rates is down to less than a hundred points. Flat yield curve is a vertual guarantee of a recession, but who the hell cares if people who don't have Ph.Ds lose their jobs?

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