7/09/2005


Markets
How come the market didn't fall apart on the day of the London bombing? Here's a trading rule, or fact, that any trader (not investor) needs to know every day. There is a situation known as "the big surprise." A big surprise is an event that nobody anywhere had in their trading matrix as a possilility, therefore when a big surprise happens the markets go crazy---up or down---and if you are on the wrong side you will get killed. A down market is particularly vicious because the people who panic overwealm everything and sell stops mean zero. You get out when you can at whatever price you can get.

9/11 was a Big Surprise. The Madrid bombing was a surprise ocurrance as was the London bombing. Every trader has a possible terror attack factored into their mix and the London bombing becomes no more than a sudden heat wave in the soybean crop or a surprise freeze on the east coast. London was ho-hum to the experienced stock trader who immediately looked for stocks to buy instead of bailing out of a market in a panic.

Markets bounce back quickly from a surprise, not very quickly from a Big Surprise.

BTW put MSNBC web site on your list. It's terrific. They actually break a lot of stories now--they were the only outlet with the tape taken by the terrorists in London---and they beat any blogger by hours. (cartoon from Peckham)_