12:40 PDT ADD: Gasoline is about where it should be in reference to the crude price. Each $1 in price of crude equals a nickel in the price of gasoline. December Gasoline is forty cents off the highs of several weeks ago. If this holds or continues we could see a thirty cent drop in retail prices fairly fast.

FROM 5AM this morning:Crude oil from a purely technical view, oil is headed to $58 very fast ($57.50 on the weekly). Why is technical analysis so important? Is it always right? At least 80% of traders rely on technical analysis somewhat, which means it has something of a self fulfilling prophecy about it, but it is far from always right. Let's see how fast, or if, it gets to $58. Gasoline is telling us with today's gap opening down, that it might get there pretty fast. We could see relief at the pump by the end of the week. Heating Oil is not moving down very much and it is heating oil that can wreck this economy; however as I post this the NYMEX is not open. Important because heating oil is strictly an American product (Europeans use fuel oil, a different formulation). If I'm still around I'll post later.

Jobless claims: 350,000 much bigger than expected--by us--obviously expected by the smart money yesterday.

Later: Heating Oil is down but not enough. Look at the chart for the December contract (December is when it starts to get really cold). You will see that it must drop another eighty cents just to be awful. Badder news cannot be found. If you live in the east pray for global warming, winter temps in the 70's would be best.