Economy and Markets Phil Flynn is one of the top, if not the top, energy analysts and traders in the world. You’ve seen him everywhere on TV. His projection for oil is not good for people needing a break at the pump. He thinks the charts are lying, the news people are full of crap, and that the real data show that demand has anything but slacked. He also notes, as I did right after Katrina, that the economy, spurred by rebuilding in the Gulf Coast, is going nowhere but up and that we are beginning to see it now. We have 3.8% growth in GDP and it could go to 4.5% by mid January and he says that oil prices surged last year mostly because of our economic growth.

The gloom and doomers are predicting, as they have been doing since Bush was elected, a collapse in consumer spending conveniently ignoring all the latest figures that show big retail sales gains almost everywhere from high end Nordstrom’s to low end WalMart. Further, if oil demand in China is dropping how come they tried to buy an oil company a few months ago?

And for those that thought higher prices for energy would kill manufacturing the ISM manufacturing number posted a stronger than expected number for the 23rd straight month. The ISM manufacturing number has been a strong forward indicator for future energy demand.

Everything about the economy is bullish, consumer confidence is up, the stock market is looking strong, and the Fed wouldn’t be raising rates if they saw a recession on the horizon.

All in all, the best of the best, is saying that demand for oil will bounce back, he points out that distillate supplies are down, meaning even if oil goes down the distillates (heating oil etc.) will go up because of short supply and bigger demand. He also points out that this year looks exactly like last year when the energy market “corrected” $13 and then roared to new highs.

So there.