11/02/2005

Energy today: API report comes out around 1PM PST and it will tell us the amounts of various fuels in storage. It has always been my experience that this info is "leaked" and this leak causes energy prices to move one way or the other before the release. Has the "leak" been wrong sometimes? Yes, but not very often. There is a "rule" in the biz that states: never hold a spec position before a report. Nobody knows what will be in the API report or the more reliable DOE report due out tomorrow. Late Add: U.S. government released data that showed rising supplies of oil and gasoline, but hinted that a recent decline in gasoline demand was tapering off. U.S. crude inventories rose by 2.7 million barrels last week to 319.1 million barrels, or 12 percent above year ago levels. Gasoline inventories grew by 1 million barrels to 196.9 million barrels, or 3 percent below year ago levels. Demand for gasoline is nearly back to normal. 64 percent of daily oil production and 50 percent of natural gas production in the Gulf of Mexico remained off-line.

Housing Warning: people with adjustable rate mortgages who have poor credit are likely to get blown out of their homes because of Greenspan's latest "genius" move. It's always the weak who get hurt most by high rates but if you think Ivy Leaguers give a fuck about real people you must think that government could have stopped Katrina

Stocks: I'm reminded again about something William O'Niel has said about stocks, and William O'Niel is as close to being always right as there is. "It is one of the great paradoxes of the stock market that what seems too high usually goes higher and what seems too low usually goes lower." This does not hold as true for commodities, but it is mostly true in those markets as well.

LATE ADD: I'm leaving my house at 10AM PST and the energies are down big time. I'd say the APIs have already been leaked and when published will show a big increase in supply on hand.

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