4/15/2006

WE NEED JOE WILSON AGAIN

Iran Nukes: Cutting to the chase......
They are full of it. No matter how you slice it they are three years away at the very minimum of having two bombs. Fifty four thousand centrifuges is total crap. Perry's has over a thousand used centrifuges for sale, but they are for orange juice and shit and can't be used for making a bomb.

A single centrifuge might produce about 30 grams of HEU (Highly Enriched Uranium) per year, about the equivalent of five Separative Work Unit (SWU). As as a general rule of thumb, a cascade of 850 to 1,000 centrifuges, each 1.5 meters long, operating continuously at 400 m/sec, would be able to produce about 20-25 kilograms of HEU in a year, enough for one weapon. One such bomb would require about 6,000 SWU.
Problem is that centrifuges are relatively small and easy to conceal. BUT building centrifuges with anything less than first rate technology is impossible. Unless it can be shown that they have purchased some from one of our pals like France, Pakistan, or North Korea, they have a long way to go.

And that's the rub: where did they buy them? If they did buy them. What we need is Joe Wilson to go over there and find out.

2 comments:

Anonymous said...

"three years away at the very minimum" ?

Are you sure?

Pakistan via Kahn has admitted to proliferating nukes all over. Remember Libia? They were getting know how from him. How about North Korea?

I bet Iran already has the bomb. Fission bombs are 60 year old technology. What we did in the early 40s can easily be replicated today with alot less hassle. Centerfuges arn't the only way to get U235.

Also, what about China? They helped North Korea and Pakistan get the bomb. Perhaps they have also helped Iran? The Russians certainly have been helping them.

I bet the Saudis have one. They helped finance Pakistan to get one. Why shouldn't they make good on their investment?

The nuclear cat was out of the bag long ago. Get used to it.

Anonymous said...

I bet Iran already has the bomb.

I disagree. If Iran had a bomb ready to go, I think they'd show it off. They'd want everybody else to know.

In addition, as a practical matter, Iran needs to test their nuke to see if it really works, whenever a test specimen is ready.

-- david.davenport.1@netzero.com