6/14/2006

Inflation watch: check the CRB index which has just fallen below the 200 day moving average. This is not a consumer index but all basic farm, food, and metals are included in this index. Consumer prices are sure to follow soon.

2 comments:

Anonymous said...

Howard if I understand you correctly, this would indicate that inflation is slowing down and the CPI will follow? If so, will interest rates stay steady or decrease slightly? What effect will this have on the financial markets and real estate?

Howard said...

CRB indicates commodity inflation is falling like a stone, energy is the only exception. CPI is a notoriously faulty indicator but one which has been in use for decades; I won't go into details but cigarettes are still in it for one example. Food prices in stores are sky high as any shopper will tell you, and it seems that no matter how little farmers get paid the prices in stores never drop. Look for bacon as an indicator here.