HAS GOP LOST THE RIGHT TO GOVERN?

Here come da Blue Dogs and that means a Democratic victory may actually be a conservative victory of sorts. First, let's look at reality: the Democrats are going to win the House; and the Senate will be hair thin one way or the other. My reasoning for the loss of the House and possible loss of the Senate? Too many gut Republicans are saying that the GOP has lost the right to govern. Kristol, Laffer, Kudlow, and the rest of that gang are just fed up; sick of the entire crowd of liars, thieves, degenerates, and spenders. Peggy Noonan has one of her monthly terrific essays up, and she pretty well covers it. An awful lot of Republicans, top and bottom, think that the only way to fix the party is to kick it out. They'd like to fire Bush, whom they feel is out of touch, careless, and living in his own world, but since they can't fire him, they have decided to fire Congress.

"Oh my God, this means Pelosi, the Black Caucus, and hard line lefties will take the country to hell."

Not so fast. There is a movement within the Democratic Party that is very quiet but is actually bigger than the Black Caucus. Called Blue Dog Democrats, currently thirty seven strong, they represent more than a fringe in the party. They are close in philosophy to the Clinton formed DNC. They have frequently joined the Republicans in the House in order to pass conservative legislation. The Left hates them, but more and more Democrats are running as conservative Democrats and as many as thirty three are winning; this would mean an even bigger Blue Dog gang. These Blue Dogs say they want a balanced budget, a growth economy, a strong foreign policy and so on; in short they are at least pretending to be JFK Democrats while their close allies are Clinton Democrats who also say they champion growth, lower taxes, and less government. It's true that the hard line Left committee chairs might want to ram their radical programs through the congress, but these Blue Dogs and DNCs want to win the presidency in 2008 and will steer the party to success. The Left, which appears so strong within the Party, may actually be losing clout. At least that is the wishful thinking below the radar.

However, when push comes to shove the Blue Dogs may turn out to be as big a spenders as "conservative" Republicans. Pelosi has successfully threatened them with loss of committee chairs and positions if they don't toe the party line, so we will have to see.

The Blue Dogs are less fiercely partisan and they do not all hail from the South. They seek to build ideological bridges to the Republican side of the aisle, are known for their independence from the leadership of their own party, and tend to be more pragmatic than partisan. Blue Dogs are closer in purpose to a former coalition of southern Members of the House known as the “Boll Weevils,” whose heyday was in the early 1980's. These Members defected as a group from the Democratic party to vote with Congressional Republicans on budgetary and tax bills. There are other Democrats like Jane Harman, Heath Shuler (the former QB and Republican).

Even more important, there are 33 conservatives running for the House that the Blue Dogs have endorsed and these thirty three could win; if all win it will be a disaster for the Republicans but not necessarily a disaster for conservatives.

The widely respected Cook Report is showing a shift back to the Democrats that is so strong that the Jackasses are again getting giddy over their prospects of having an almost super majority in the House because they could now win as many as 35 House seats. Winning the six seats in the Senate necessary for a majority isn't likely.

In short, in four of the five diagnostic indicators, the situation is significantly worse for Republicans today than it was for Democrats in 1994. And in the remaining one, this year is marginally better.

Before anyone can erroneously draw the conclusion that this survey is just another mainstream/liberal media effort, the poll was supervised by designates from both the NBC News Political Unit and the political editor of the Wall Street Journal, collaborating with a top pollster from each party. The Democrat is Peter D. Hart, truly one of the deans of the political and Democratic polling communities. The Republican side was headed up by the late Robert Teeter, a true pioneer and leader in polling for the GOP. After Teeter passed away several years ago, Bill McInturff took over. McInturff is a senior partner in Public Opinion Strategies (R), the largest and most-respected survey research firm in the party, with the largest share of sitting Republicans; 17 U.S. Senators, ten governors, and more than 50 Members of Congress as clients). So this is hardly a poll that could be labeled slanted, and in fact is designed by two of the best practitioners on the planet.

Republican soldiers are beginning to see the landscape and really can't stand what Bush is not doing on immigration, his horrible appointmens, his wild spending, and lack of fiscal discipline (19 of 23 federal agencies cannot produce an acceptable audit), The Bridge to Nowhere, Katrina spending etc.; with Iraq firmly in the foreground and the body count rising, the relatively few Republicans who are coming home to roost will not turn the Democratic tide. And if the Democrats don't wreck the economy they will govern for the next twenty years.

As an add here: the colossal GOP edge in money on hand has literally evaporated as money pours into Democratic coffers from people who always ride the winner in order to get favors. This is best reflected in the New Jersey senate race that the Republican candidate, Kean, could win if the GOP could throw $5 million into it. In fact Kean would be a lock, but without the money, the ethically challenged Menendez (he's actually a real live crook) will win.

That's reality, folks. Get them "I Love Hillary" bumper stickers out.