10/10/2006

Those pesky North Koreans and by extension, the Iranians. Making a bomb is too easy to think that a country can't make one. Virtually every country can do it. The only hard part is the Diffusion part.

Pure uranium is dried and filtered into coarse powder called yellowcake. The substance is exposed to fluoride gas and heated to 133 degrees F. This creates a gas called uranium hexafluoride. The gas consists of two isotopes—U-238, which is too stable for atomic detonation, and U-235, which is lighter and highly fissionable. So they have to be separated. (U-238 IS used in a truly difficult to make plutonium bomb, the one tested at Los Alamos and dropped on Nagasaki).

To separate the isotopes, the gas (uranium hexafluoride) is pumped through a succession of fine, porous barriers—centrifuges. U-235 isotopes are lighter and propel faster through the barriers and concentrate. After passing through several thousand barriers, called centrifuges, the gas contains about 2 percent of U-235—only enough for a nuclear reactor.

But an atom bomb requires nearly 95 percent purity. So we move to refinement—the sophisticated, expensive, and time-consuming part. The slightly enriched uranium undergoes magnetic separation before being fed into another centrifuge. After passing through more than 1,500 barriers, the gas is about 20 percent pure. The process is repeated for nearly a year until the purity reaches nearly 90 percent. At this point, the uranium gas is considered bomb grade. It is then converted into metal powder.

So we have to assume that North Korea has done the hard part, if they haven't they have bupkis. Same for Iran. Setting the stuff off goes like this, The metal powder is molded into a ball weighing between 50 and 100 pounds. Size matters less than the purity of the uranium. It is packed into a warhead containing a detonator (the United States used artillery shells in its early versions) and fuse, which can be remotely set.

The even easier way to explode it is called "the gun" type. In this type you just take two clumps of U-235 (not large enough to sustain a chain reaction) and bring them together rapidly inside a gun barrel so that a supercritical mass is formed, and boom.

So it's possible that the NKs had a couple of ten or twenty pound clumps and detonated that, thus producing a weaker bomb.

It seems impossible that our intel is so bad that we can't tell if NK has the 50,000 or so centrifuges necessary to refine the U-235, but then it has already been demonstrated the limits of our intel. And remember we are talking a U-235 bomb, not the much more powerful plutonium bomb which needs advanced technology.

3 comments:

Anonymous said...

It took the US less than two years to make a bomb from scratch in WWII.

Fast forward 60 years. Technology has improved greatly. *NO* part of building a bomb is the "hard" part. It's all very easy.

Bomb control is just as ridiculous a concept as alcohol control, or drug control, or gun control is. Prohibition doesn't work.

If the Norks are a danger, glass 'em. Problem solved. Slaughtering one's enemies is a time honored and historically proven method of staying alive.

It's time to get Roman on their ass.

Howard said...

We began in 1938 when both Fermi and University of Chicago physicists began work. It took three years with the best people on the face of the earth working on it, and an industrial base that devoted itself to making it. To make a bomb you would have to have 54,000 centrifuges working full time for a year to get fifty pounds of fissionable U-235. How do you hide 50,000 centrifuges? IF they have the fissionable U-235 right now, then the bomb is just days away.

Anonymous said...

the mass of U-235 required for a fission reaction is well known. Geting the bigest bang for the buck is the hard part.

Just putting together two clumps of U-235 which are large enough to cause a chain reaction will not go up like a nuke. It will chain react and blow itself apart before it realy ramps up. The yield of a nuke is related to the efficiency of the reaction of the parts.

That's where the technology comes in. Ultra precise machining of uranimum and plutonium parts as well as ridiculously fast and precise triggering mechanisms, shaped charges and gemoetries.

On paper it's easy. In practice it's a bitch.