8/15/2007

Market?

Sometimes current affairs humor is so good it's better than the real thing. For example this little gem from Minyanville.
If the smartest guys in the room lose $1.4 bln in six trading days, what does that say about Joe Hedge Fund? If the most powerful platforms, the best brains, and the most moolah gets crushed, what does that say about the propensity to panic on the Street?

Algorithms? Here's an algorithm for ya. Heightened returns = heightened risk.

Or a law of physics: heightened risk squared by leverage, divided by hubris, multiplied by the diameter of other people's money is the circumference of what could become a real conundrum for the real economy.
The bottom line here is that this is a Main Street deal. A housing market for the middle class deal. It's not a rich prick in the hedge fund deal. Lowering rates is like opening the flood gates on a dam so you can get a sip of water. The 200 day moving average has been shattered (red line on chart at left). Trend lines have capitulated like Singapore before the bicycle army of the Japanese. You have to pay attention to the facts, not the bimbo armies on CNBC and Bloomberg. FACT: Borrowers won't borrow and lenders won't lend. This won't end til they all do. Meanwhile, pay attention. The middle class home owning class is being raped while they are being petted by the fucking media. This ain't close to being over. These hedge funds leveraged money to buy nothing and you can't sell nothing to anybody but my ex-wife. Meaning they have nothing to liquidate. Nothing. BTW, that histogram in the above chart is a major indicator (MACD) and it is one of the most accurate. Them lines have to cross. Have to. 1427 1294 on the S&P is too important a support level to ignore. If that is penetrated we are all fucked. BTW, a lot of the above was cannibalized from a great site called Minyanville. Give it a look, he'll scare the shit out of you but he knows what he's doing. Late Add: market is now 10% off the highs, a major correction at the very least.

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