Heating Oil and inflation: back in my younger days when I used to trade heating oil every winter I had a sure fire clue as to the winter temperatures and I'd trade accordingly. In those days Nebraska and Oklahoma played a football game on Thanksgiving Day. If the spectators were huddling in heavy coats with their heads tucked into their jackets it meant a cold cold winter and I'd immediately open up long futures positions or buy options. If the spectators were in T shirts or light shirts I'd assume a warmer than normal winter and short the futures. I think I was right every time. There is no longer a football game to hang a trade on but the temps in both Norman and Lincoln are very warm for this time of year. To me this means lower heating oil prices unless crude goes nuts once again. However, the stocks on hand (inventory) will remain high and prices should stay low. This is very good news for the east coast, the only part of the country not using natural gas for home heating. See chart below. Crude is down $10 for the week (Feb Futures)

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