Couple of Market Notes: Back when I was learning about markets I attended a seminar given by one of my mentors. During one session he stated that, when you see a picture of a sack of sugar on the cover of Time Magazine it's time to get out of sugar. He had nothing against Time Mag but the Seminar had to do with pop media commenting on any market at all and what effect it might have. This is not just hot air, it is very accurate to say that popular media is populated by economic illiterates and political hacks who know nothing, and when people who know nothing begin to tell you something watch out.

So during the past few weeks we have main line mags and TV "news" shows warning us all about recession and sub prime lenders. So is this the bottom? Is the bottom virtually a certainty?

Problem with this "analysis" is timing. I remember running into a couple of the usual stupid real estate women at a party a long time ago at which they were insistent that real estate was a sure thing and that I should buy right now and "make your killing." I made the comment to my wife that if those stupid bitches were touting real estate it meant that the top was in. Well it may well have been in but it was two years before real estate took a horrendous dive. In other words, it was virtually in and virtually meant that there were many thousands still to be made.

Another example: I started posting over a year ago that ethanol was a fake; that it was horrible for car engines, was far too expensive, ruined fuel mileage per gallon, was impossible to transport by pipeline, and was of benefit only to corn farmers and a couple of Ag giants (Carghill and ConAgra). Well, it is just now showing up in the actual markets that there is a glut of ethanol and that nobody wants it. So while corn (our source for the shit) has topped finally(and at in insanely high price), I was a year too early. Had I shorted corn when I "knew" ethanol was a fake I would have missed a 5K per contract move to the upside. And worse, because shorting corn futures means that I'd been out actual cash when corn markets moved against me (margin calls, forced liquidations, etc.), my loss is doubled--upside I missed plus actual loss before bailing out.

In markets you have to be correct right now. A year down the road with an "I told you so" is total bullshit. Only the market hype artists ever make claims based on calling a market more than a week or two early.