I Could be Full of Crap. Again

Data and Incomplete Data:
I once played in a football game where we made just three first downs, gained something like 45 yards in total offense, completed three out of 18 passes, and gave up 300 yards in total offense. Looking at the data it is quite clear that we must have lost. But a look at the final piece of data, the actual final score, showed that we won, 21-7. So what was missed? We won by running back a fumble, a horrible punt, and an interception for touchdowns. An example of incomplete data misinforming us of the reality.

Positive GDP CAN mean recession before it happens. Positive stock markets can also mask serious economic situations. GDP leaves out plenty, as does employment and unemployment numbers. The real data so overwhelmingly proves that Recession can and often do begin with positive GDP, that everyone wonders where people are getting their numbers. It's tough to deny the numbers in the stock market, unemployment numbers, and the regurgitations of economic experts that prove we have no recession. But all the information telling us that things are OK ignore record foreclosures, an almost uniform cessation in homebuilding, and what looks to be ruinous inflation.

The data being missed and ignored might indicate a serious recession is virtually upon us. Of the 11 post WWII recessions, 4 started with positive GDP numbers and two were flat. A very long study is here, the results of which are all from public documents. The study shows us that it's simply insane to ignore the serious economic problems. We used to piss and moan when gasoline went to $1.49 a gallon; now it's $3.49; remember when milk cost a little more than eighty cents a quart? It's now nearly $2. Cereal costs have doubled, bread costs have gone up 50%, and public transportation costs have sky rocketed (it's been twenty years, but NYC Subways used to cost a quarter and now they are more than $2). Air travel may soon cease because of fuel costs. And the price of beer, a working class beverage our latte' sniffing seaweed hugging elites wouldn't touch, are soaring. Etc. etc. Wine prices remain stable, as do diamond necklaces, and cocaine, while only Starbucks Coffee has gone up for our precious upper classes.

Real home prices as quoted by all the usual suspects are leaving out foreclosures COMPLETELY. Read the links and lighten up on your stocks. And stop worrying. Congress is meeting to solve the mortgage crises.....right now they are discussing a plan to burn down every house in foreclosure and have the insurance companies pay the bills.