6/10/2008

Prices and Prices

Speculation has gotten so far out of whack that farmers are refusing to hedge their crops on the exchanges. Why? Because there is almost no relationship between cash and futures. The specs are mainly commodity FUNDS with more money than God "investing" in futures. There are so many more futures contracts than total grains on hand and in the ground that the entire system may unravel. Keep in mind that futures, with all the strum und drang, is a tiny market, one that cannot absorb trades in the tens of thousands of contracts. Corn prices? For real? All you can do is look at the actual sales on a daily basis for a price. Summing up: Futures are no longer a reliable future price indicator. Mainly because there cannot be a long without an opposite short and vice versa so prices will rise or fall until the "opposite" will find market opportunity. 10,000 longs must have 10,000 shorts for the trade to be executed. Fault? The usual Bush appointee who sits on his ass just "waiting......"

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