7/29/2008

Oh Shit (again)


What does it mean? Oil near breaking $120 "floor" is simply an invention made by people with no real knowledge about anything and need something to put on the tube. All these so called psychological "numbers" in markets mean nothing at all to the people trading world wide who are trading to make a buck or save a buck. Lots of floor trading is technical, meaning that the trades are made in response to a chart pattern on a one, two, or five minute chart (the above chart is a one minute chart) but these series of "support and resistance" are of the thirty to forty second variety rather than any daily, weekly, or monthly price. Almost nobody actually in a commodity market trades anything other than short term charts. Support and resistance is just an unfulfilled theory to them.

but and there is a but in everything. Long term investors need to pay attention to the fifty day and 200 day moving averages (I bail at fifty). Then there are the real long term investor that trades the 200 week and the 200 month moving average. We are through it right now. There is also the asset eradication in the housing market. You have zero profit if you bought back in '04. I don't think there has been an asset wipe out like this one in my lifetime. Well the depression back in 1892 might have been worse. My grandson went through it and he says it was a bitch.

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