Markets

The Times they are a Changing.....and then some.  First, had I had the loose 10K to short crude last week I'd have made at least 10K; had I shorted gold I'd have picked up 5K, had I gone long the dollar a few weeks ago when I first mentioned that the worm had positively turned I'd have made 10K....

What?  You have to realize that all the smart guys, meaning every institution and mutual fund has been long commodities for several years.  You cannot unwind the millions upon millions of contracts very quickly; all the grains, meats and metals are heading south after years of gaining strength.  To top it off pension funds which cannot move without a board meeting taking several weeks hold huge net long positions which are now losing money but they can't sell until their know nothing boards say OK.  

So?  Currencies trend for years and years (at least five) which means that gold is headed south as is oil (unlesss there is some kind of foreign problem).  There is a fundamental shift in sentiment in all markets and you should recognize this stuff.   Having said all this, there is one factor in commodities markets like in no other market.  That factor is margin.  Margin is the amount you have to put up in order to go long or short; then you must maintain margin which means "margin calls" up the kazoo when markets go against you and there is no way a $5 move against all the longs in oil won't have a gut wrenching effect.   Futures are all leverage, sometimes as high as 10-1, and when leverage goes against you the losses can be staggering as we see in the bond and equity markets.