The Actual Formula for Success
The actual Kool Aid everyone used to make big money on Wall Street:
And if you can't understand it you are far too stupid to work at Merrill or Goldman.
C_\rho(u,v) = \Phi_{\rho} \left(\Phi^{-1}(u), \Phi^{-1}(v) \right)
Where u and v \in [0,1] and Φ denotes the standard normal cumulative distribution function.
Differentiating C yields the copula density function:
c_\rho(u,v) = \frac{\phi_{X,Y, \rho} (\Phi^{-1}(u), \Phi^{-1}(v) )} {\phi(\Phi^{-1}(u)) \phi(\Phi^{-1}(v))}
Where
\phi_{X,Y, \rho}(x,y) = \frac{1}{2 \pi\sqrt{1-\rho^2}} \exp \left (- \frac{1}{2(1-\rho^2)} \left [{x^2+y^2} -2\rho xy \right ] \right )
This is what unsupervised PhDs will come up with. It's even better when supervisors ain't smart enough to actually figure out what you have done.
3 comments:
In bookie's terms (much simpler to understand), it's called "a bet on a bet on a bet". Here's an example.
Chance it will rain tomorrow: 50%
Chance said forecast is wrong: 20%
Chance the second forecast is wrong: 10%
Voila: your risk of losing has just gone from 50% to 10%.
Borrow against your house's perceived (and inflated) value to make the bet on Chance #3.
If you lose, get a second mortgage, and repeat.
Very good, DuToit, potentially you are a very dangerous man.....
Hell, I'm not even a statistician, and I don't bet on the horses.
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