5/06/2009

Sell in May and Go Away

Markets: That little bromide in the headline means that traders awash with buks hit the Hamptons for one of those million dollar summers and don't come back til after Labor Day. That was then and this is now. The volume in the NYSE varies from pathetic to sensational, and right now all the volume is UP. So? I'm essentially a chart guy believing that anything inside or complex is already known to the big players and these investments will show up in a chart pattern. Back on March 3 I finally observed that in spite of horrible data and news the charts were showing a monster rally. So I played S&P 500 futures (not the smaller 250 contract) and I've played it with options cover and I've made some buks. But I'm scared shitless right now, all my positions are out, and I see a major decline coming on.

As an end note here, this corruption on Wall Street is going to cost us financial and stock market world leadership. The money will now go to Paris, London, and even Hong Kong. People invested here because the regulations guaranteed on honest market....So much for that one. Now for the "stress tests" for the banks. To sum it up: totally inadequate. Their worst case scnarios talk about 10% unemployment and a GDP contraction of 6 plus percent. Worst case? Are you fucking kidding? Shouldn't worst case be the Depression year of 1932 or there abouts when unemployment was 25% and GDP declined 13%? Careful careful would be the course here. The Obama adoring press will report nothing but good news. Don't let this one kick you in the balls.

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