3/14/2003

I have more than 20 years trading futures and options for clients. Used technical analysis as well as a couple of proprietary systems. Traded Index futuresd and options, interest rates, and stuff.

STOCK MARKET: Trading Range between 7400 and 8500. Period. There are still the hustlers and quick buck artists "playing" it between highs and lows for quick profits. Become an investor. Play for the long haul with good companies. Don't look for the war to bail you out. The big money will not buy over valuation. Period. All the tipsters still tout the quick play.

We are now in a market where you have to learn your stuff. There is a fundamental conflict between any broker or firm being paid commissions only when buying and selling stocks for their "clients" (read suckers). When a firm refers to their "Top Man" they mean the guy who ripped the most commissions from his customers, not the guy who made clients the most money.

You have to learn an investing system and it ain't easy. I favor Bill O'Niel at Investors Business Daily but his system is hard to learn and takes work every day. I don't know of any honest method that doesn't.

MAJOR PROBLEM: Mutual Funds. You don't think a billion shares per day is mom and pop trading, do you? These fund managers and firms MUST turn a profit for themselves and the only way to do that is trade. And trade. And trade. Every stock bought or sold generates a commission, usually hidden from the public. This huge action means you have to have sophisticated charting service like DailyGraphs (expensive) to spot what is going on. All people who lose use the free stuff. Doesn't work. You always have to calculate if you are investing enough to justify the costs of your investing "business". You can't afford to be in a stock the Mutuals are dumping. Makes it very rough on everyone. But that is the game.

REAL ESTATE WARNING: All the "smart guys" are now buying up real estate. They are forming all kinds of dirty partnerships so they can buy up government foreclosures without disclosing who actually finances the purchases. This will continue to push housing prices. Another bubble being caused by the usual suspects doing crooked things. Be very careful "investing" in real estate. These bums created the stock market bubble and they are in the process of creating this one. Same results. Be very careful.

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