9/11/2003

Gasoline from energy expert Phil Flynn at Alaron. Keep in mind that he solicits business and he is telling customers to go long gasoline futures. None the less he is very good and this commentary will give you an idea of what is "wrong" out there with gasoline prices.

......"Do we have ghosts or gougers? Ever since the Clinton Administration enacted new regulations for cleaner burning fuel for the summer driving months, price spikes have been very common for all the differing special blends. And this year is no different with a call for an investigation when prices spiked again during the Labor Day holiday period. Where is this legendary gas gouger? He can't be found on any corner and we do our country a disservice always looking for this phantom gouger. Is big oil the evil menace? Many love to point fingers of blame at them. We really need a bad guy for this problem. But by diverting the public attention to big oil we neglect the real problem and the politicians know it. There are very real and serious energy troubles in the US and if our economy is to continue to grow and remain strong, these problems must seriously be addressed and solved. Gasoline demand has been rising and will continue to and we are running at or near all time demand numbers. To assume energy demand around the globe will ever decrease is wrong headed. Here in the US our ability to produce gasoline has not increased and there have been no new refineries built here in over 20 years. Yet in all those 20 years demand has done nothing but go up. Traditionally refineries must run at 75% of capacity to keep up but now they must run at 90%. We understand how desperate the situation is if even one refinery goes down.

Many believe the oil companies are the gougers because if prices are going up so are their profits. If they have all these profits, build more refineries! They'd like to! A big problem with building more is government regulation! Because of government rules, it's nearly impossible to build one anymore. It could run in to the billions of dollars to build a refinery these days even if government regulations could be satisfied. For an oil company to have that kind of money they'd need to triple their earnings to even begin to make it possible. Who wants to pay the price per gallon it would take to make it possible to build new refineries? Imagine the type of investigation that would cause!

Another reason prices are so high is many different and constantly changing government mandated types of gas that are out there. Nearly every state has it's own special blend that the government, by law, says must be sold during the summer and these blends are constantly changing. The winter blend is entirely different and refiners have to shut down and reconfigure their refineries to produce these different blends. All these blends, because of constant changes, can not be stored so inventory levels can never really be built up. And we've seen first hand what even one disruption can do to inventory levels and therefore prices. So who are the real gougers? The extreme environmentalists and the politicians that represent them. We'll need to face some hard facts in this country are continue down this uncertain and expensive energy road......"
Phil knows his shit and this commentary is basically what all the big traders and experts are saying.

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