The government doesn't suck dot com in lots of areas. One of them is the U.S. Weather Service which has become in the past four years the best forecaster in the world. They lean heavily on computer generated data over the past century, satellite systems, and ground/sea electronic sensors. The USWS through NOAA (National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration) are calling for a "normal" winter. This means that there will be enough heating oil but a slight shortage of natural gas. Keep in mind that a two or three day cold snap is not a weather spike, but a two to three week snap is. If we get a spike we'll have problems. BTW the NWS called for a pretty bad hurricane season, and they have been right about that even though most land falls have been mild.