Unemployment is down, but inside the numbers it is bad news. BUT (see below) The economy is growing like mad and producing absolutely no job growth according to the jobs report, in fact losing jobs. Why doesn't business hire? Because they are afraid. They won't hire til their backlog for orders gets so high that customers go somewhere else. This is where the rubber hits the road. If the economy grows at the rate the other numbers are showing and people remain out of work then the charge by the Democrats that all the tax cuts were for the rich will take hold. Because jobs are the only thing that matters and business thinks money is the only thing that matters, so as long as they can cruise along with a smaller work force they will do so.
This is not good news for Republicans, tax cutters, or low rates. Eventually, and I think next month, the lack of job growth will begin to bite this market. It will mean that all the policies that Bush has put into place, and they are classic policies, do not work and that Federal Spending for pork barrel projects is what does work. Period. Period. Period. There are 1.9 MILLION people who have been out of work 27 weeks. Now the BUT
The household numbers show job growth of 193,000. What? This is because there are two surveys. The payroll (unemployment) is determined by phoning employers and asking the question. The household numbers are derived from calling households and asking. So which number is right? Are both right? Unemployment is a lagging indicator, but how far can it lag?
Still not a good number. Watch the markets carefully because this number could really hit the market hard.
There is hope when J.P. Morgan looks at economic growth of 5.5% last half, BUT IT'S JOBS, STUPID. JOBS. And confiscatory taxes will be the result if big job growth doesn't follow corporate profits, which are soaring.
9/05/2003
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