5/24/2004

Saudis going it alone in pumping more crude. The problem is that most people who do the actual counting of oil barrels say that OPEC has been pumping 1.5 mbd over the quota for the last two months. Be sure you read my post: Futures Prices Effects on Cash Prices. I could have named it "It's Refining Capacity, Stupid" because we haven't built a refinery in this country for thirty years, current refineries are old, and new ones cannot be built while the enviro-nuts are running things. Oil could drop to $27 and I don't think you'll see gasoline drop more than $.25. Lowering prices only fills the warehouse with product, but if you have no trucks to deliver the goods to market nothing will happen. This is really a "demand" driven problem, not a supply problem. We have only as much refinery capacity as a country of 2/3 the population we have today. Thanks again enviro-nuts. Another source for oil pumping over quota is USA Today:

OPEC nations are already producing in excess of 2 million barrels above their quota. Would the Saudi's call amount to a production cut? And even if the call were to raise output, was that possible given the little amount of surplus capacity available?
This ain't no "magic pill".

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