8/06/2004

Markets and Economy
EEEEEKKKKKK!!!!!!!

While I thought the jobs numbers would be lower than expectations, I didn't expect this. I said earlier in the week that I thought the market would drop because in the data I use ( trend and volume) this market was clearly pointing down, not a climate where I would invest no matter what. It's my experience that when a market is weak nothing can stop the fall and anything can trigger it. Conversely when the market is strong nothing can derail it

Is it as simple as that? Yes. You must never ignore the major indexes and the volume there. Down on high volume, horrible; down on light volume encouraging. Same for the way up: up on light volume is not very good and on high volume it's dam good.

You can blame this on both Putin and the pessimism about the election. It is very strange. Most of the people I know who are for Bush think Kerry is going to win while most of those for Kerry think Bush will win. This means that everyone expects the worst, something not measured in polls. Only in conversations.

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