9/27/2004

Markets and Economy
TRADING RANGE NOT OVER

The range has broadened but it's not over. Mark Johnson, a top tech analyst who trades short term Dow and S&P futures (less than a week in any one position) and who has been playing mostly the short side for a while sees the market this way:

I see no reason why we cannot have a trading range type of market for quite a while. The fact that the oil prices have not caused a major decline tells me that the market believes that the economy will adjust to the new higher levels. While the higher prices of commodities will have a negative effect on the economy it comes at a point in time when the economy is recovering so the two are balancing each other out. Hence the "trading range" style of market.
He's very good and isn't looking for a big rally unless commodity prices suddenly dip and look like they will stay lower....or go through the roof, a possibility since this may be a big El Niño year. El Niños cause heavy rains in Ecuador and the mud and warm water cause the anchovies to die. Anchovies are used in most fertilizers in the world and their demise will mean exponential increases in fertilizer prices and cause farm prices to soar. Oil at $60 won't help either.

I don't have the time to do any more than watch my own shit these days so I'll let Mark speak for me.

No comments: