10/06/2004

THE BOND MARKET TELLS YOU NOTHING

MARKETS: After 5 days of high volume (yesterday) the rally is as confirmed as it can be and you should be in it. What's happening? I don't "know" but my opinion is that the stock market is taking its cue from the bond market which is heading down, meaning higher rates. Now the bond people hate good news. What good news can theire be? Great GDP and good Jobs numbers this week. You have to consider the players in bond markets. They include banks. Especially banks. And if banks see good borrowing from business for expansion they assume that the jobs and GDP will be up. You can't put this into the bank, but it is what the "thinking" is, which is based on their own data. HOWEVER......BUT.....Banks are sleazy. They could be selling bond futures with the intention of buying them back late Thursday and make a killing both on the short and long sides That is because bad numbers will send bond prices soaring; lower rates because of the bad numbers. That's why this kind of crystal ball gazine is about the worst thing you can do. Just look at your OWN signals and pay no attention to anything else.

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