12/04/2004

There is an unlinkable editorial in IBD that attacks the twin deficit theory. Lots of economists are not upset at all with the "cheap" dollar and here are a few exerpts:

The U.S. budget deficit is 3.7 percent of GDP, the same as Germany's and France's. Japan's budget deficit exceeded 6 percent of GDP for the past five years and is now above 7 percent. If budget deficits explained trade deficits or interest rates, Japan would have the largest trade deficit and highest interest rates.

The U.S. dollar has declined as much against the Australian dollar as against the euro, yet Australia's current account deficit is larger than ours. Besides, current account deficits are unrelated to budget deficits here or there. The U.S. current account deficit was 0.8 percent of GDP in 1992, when the budget deficit was 4.7 percent of GDP. After the budget moved into surplus, the current account ballooned to 2.3 percent of GDP in 1998, 3.1 percent in 1999 and 4.2 percent in 2000.

What about the alleged threat of foreigners rushing to sell dollar assets, driving U.S. interest rates sky-high? If foreigners as a group tried to sell their dollar assets, they would have to sell them to Americans, which would have to be a good deal for us or we wouldn't do it.

Foreigners aren't going to run on the dollar because foreigners hold only $1.7 trillion of our $7.3 trillion national debt.

Also no worries about people switching to the Euro because European interest rates are lower than ours. They'd lose more by switching.

The blah blah over inflation is just air. Over the past year, however, consumer prices were flat in Japan, up 2.4 percent in the Euro area and up 3.2 percent in the United States. That suggests monetary policy should be tightened in the United States, but not in Europe or Japan. If that happened, the dollar would likely rise. The budget deficit is irrelevant.


IBD is read by everyone who is anyone and this article is causing plenty of talk.

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