Belmont is one of the top people on the web, but I disagree heatedly with some of the things he is saying today. First, his comments on the ammo are way off. He is talking about guarding the ammo dumps with another 100,000 troops. Our problem stems from the fact that the CIA completely missed the ammo dumps before the war. The solution, then as now, was to blow the dam things up, not guard them with 100,000 troops. The more troops on the ground argument can be turned to say “the more targets on the ground.” The more targets the more hard sites we have for them to stay in and be bombed.
We face an insurgency of Muslims. More specifically a tiny minority of Sunni Muslims and a ton of Baathists from the old regime. Muslims marry within their own families (cousins) so it is next to impossible to send some outsider in to spy. If you ain’t family you are dead. Spying on these guys can only be accomplished by “turning” someone. Keep in mind that we turned a lot of Russians. We never penetrated the Kremlin, nor did they penetrate us. All their guys who spied on us here were traitors. We never came close to penetrating the Nazi high command even though we had plenty of people who spoke the language fluently and knew the culture. Spying is very tough.
Our only strategy for Iraq is to build an Iraqi army and security force capable of handling things. It is only they that can “turn” people inside Muslim groups. If we equip Iraqis with our weapons, train them properly, and if they are motivated, democracy will win. Do not confuse this insurgency with a guerilla war. A guerilla war is carried out by soldiers hiding inside a willing populace. They have some sort of ideology that offers the people something different that all think will make their lives better. These guys are just terrorist thugs offering more of Saddam. They have no chance. They have no hard bases. Syria is just a pain in the ass and the same can be said of Shia Iran.
Iraqis can win this thing. It’s there for the taking. Period. There have been free elections in Afghanistan. Another in Palestine. Most of the Arab states are moving in a direction to allow some kind of input from their people. We ARE winning this thing right now. It’s ugly. It’s tough. Guys are getting killed. But at least five times as many Iraqis are being killed and they still show up for jobs and they are still going to vote.
It will take time, but time is on our side not theirs. Belmont's recitation of the Baghdad poll needs to be looked at. WE ARE WINNING.
