Markets and Economy:
Major argument going on as to whether we are in a "soft patch" or not. Retail sales and jobs would indicate boom; trucking and railroads (you have to get goods to market) in the toilet. I still say that if they had a CPI that only measure the things consumers must buy each week----foods, gasoline, heat and electricty rates, and so on---a Weekly CPI--- these oh so sophisticated economists would know there is inflation right now. None of us buy cars, computers, and HD TVs every month. So what we are left with is the great unwashed like us who have to buy things we need every week. We scream inflation while the elites say boom. LATE ADD: another thing you have to look at is corporate debt. Guess where that is.

Even Later Add: The CRB, which is a commodity price index going back thirty or more years, shows deflation happening right now. How long does it take raw commodity prices to seep down to consumer level? I've been trading commodities markets for almost a quarter century and I don't know anyone who knows that answer. We see that as crude prices fall it takes three weeks at least to get to the pump; surprisingly, since wheat is only 5% or less of bread content, wheat prices don't affect bread or cake prices much; the prices of corn and soy products will affect the prices of meat within six or so months. Falling copper prices indicate slowing demand for home building because copper is used in all homes. Other than that, WTFDIK? And the price of pussy? One of the great mysteries. A PPI,---Pussy Price Index---? If I was running things we'd have one. Why not, at least we could relate to it.

Patting myself on the back: check the U.S. Dollar. I've been saying since January that the dollar slide was over, and except for a two month correction, it is now roaring again. Next stop: .89. There is no way the dollar can fall when the Fed cuts back money supply and raises rates. The markets are going to price in an eventual interest rate of 4% because that is what the
Fed has been saying. Could destroy the economy. Again. Irresponsible Opinion: this genius Greenspan has caused two of the last four recessions by raising rates way too much and too fast. None of these Ivy pieces of shit can abide an encomony where everyone without a masters degree has a job. There is no data anywhere that says employment causes inflation. Except in the secret vaults at Harvard.